Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk
$150 - $250 / hour
Verified partner opportunity
$150 - $250 / hour
About the work
About the work
We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff
no hindsight
and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.
This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.
What you will do • Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff • Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds • Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact • Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard
Who we are looking for • A senior elections forecaster, campaign strategist, polling or statistical-methodology expert, or political-risk analyst • A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds
not retrospective commentary • Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis • Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
Backgrounds we look at first: top national polling and election-forecasting organizations, major decision desks, senior analytics teams from presidential, Senate or governor races, and political-risk desks at leading banks, funds, or firms such as Eurasia Group and EIU. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement
direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.
Not a fit
Pure communications, journalism, or academic profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment.
Point-in-time discipline
Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.
This opportunity may suit professionals with relevant experience in AI evaluation, Finance, Research. Review the official description and requirements before applying.
The listing states $150 - $250 / hour. Confirm the final rate, workload, and payment terms during the official application process.
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The listing states $150 - $250 / hour. Confirm the final rate, workload, and payment terms during the official application process.
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