Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk
$150 - $250 / hour
Verified partner opportunity
$150 - $250 / hour
About the work
About the work
We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff
no hindsight
and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.
This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.
What you will do • Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff • Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds • Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact • Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard
Who we are looking for • Local political analysts with hands-on experience on specific races in swing states: current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent cycles in the same state • On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, the candidates, and the local political environment, from roles such as university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff, or state political-risk analyst • A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races
not retrospective commentary • Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis • Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
Backgrounds we look at first: political science departments and survey research centers at universities in the target states, state and regional pollsters, state-level campaign and party analytics teams, and decision desks or race-ratings outlets with state-specific coverage. National forecasting or political-risk experience is welcome when paired with deep knowledge of a specific state. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement
direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.
Not a fit • Profiles whose experience is mainly international politics, geopolitics, or country risk, with little or no work on US races • Analysts who have not worked on a current or recent US race in the state they would cover • Pure communications or journalism profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment • Academic profiles whose work is purely theoretical, with no analysis of live races
Point-in-time discipline
Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.
This opportunity may suit professionals with relevant experience in AI evaluation, Finance, Research. Review the official description and requirements before applying.
The listing states $150 - $250 / hour. Confirm the final rate, workload, and payment terms during the official application process.
Use your CV to find relevant roles on HumanitApp. This is separate from a partner application.
Match my CV →Optional role alerts from HumanitApp. Subscribe only if you want weekly emails.
Get weekly role alerts →Before you apply
This listing is not a promise of immediate work. Mercor may send separate offers to prequalified candidates. Read how Instant Work Offers work.
The listing states $150 - $250 / hour. Confirm the final rate, workload, and payment terms during the official application process.
Yes. The button opens the exact verified Mercorlisting using the referral URL published for this role.
No. HumanitApp independently curates the opportunity. The partner platform manages applications and hiring decisions.
No. Choose the primary Apply action to continue directly without giving HumanitApp your name or email address.